Rotary Log: December 15, 2011 (Professor Smith)

Our last meeting before Christmas began with a very warm presentation: representatives of both Crossroads House and The Salvation Army gave thanks to our Club for making it possible to give warm coats to children who would otherwise be left out in the cold.

            For years former Rotarian Ray Jones would bid on (and ultimately win) that year’s ornament #1.  After Ray died, Mort continued the tradition of buying ornament #1 each year and giving it to Ray’s widow.  This year was no different.  Thank you Mort!

            Claudia Silva, of Face, Body, Spitit, a licensed massage therapists who does wonderful, wonderful work, donated a $120.00 gift certificate to the Club for a hot stone massage.  Neil Ouelette was the successful bidder at $110.00 and he or his wife will have an unforgettable experience!  Claudia is located at 875 Islington Street behind Patrix Hair Salon and her phone is: 436-0900.  Her website is www.facebodyspirit.net. Thank you Claudia!

            As we all know by now, all 1,300 Christmas Trees sold out today, December 15, 2011.  Dave Underhill did a fantastic job running the show! Thank you, Dave.

            We gave our tips to Sandy and the rest of the wait staff.  Sandy, in thanking us for the gift, said:  “I love doing this!”

            We had the good fortune today to hear Professor Andy Smith speak to us on the very timely topic of presidential primaries.  The professor has published extensively on elections and surveys in New Hampshire and particularly as they relate to the presidential primaries.  He is also supervised or conducted polling for the Globe, USA Today, WMUR and many others.

            Professor Smith admitted that predictions are more good luck than good skill and that is partly because of the make up of caucus and primary voters.  New Hampshire primary turn out in 2008 was 60%.  At the same time, Iowa’s caucus turn out was 11%.  New Hampshire, Professor Smith concluded, was therefore much more reflective of mainstream voters nationally then the limited activists who tend to show up at caucus in Iowa.  New Hampshire republicans, he noted, are more moderate “Rockefeller Republicans” and New Hampshire, unlike Iowa, is the 2^nd least religious state in the country so the political social issues do not garner the same votes as they would in Iowa.

            To the surprise of many in the room, there are no registered independents in New Hampshire Primaries.  The only way to vote in the New Hampshire primary is to register either democrat or republican.  Interestingly, very few voters will bother to register in the party that they are not normally members of just to try to influence the primary.

            The New Hampshire primary can be a funny and fickle thing as we have seen this year with the variety of frontrunners.  Professor Smith said never to count anyone out and noted Kerry in 2004, McCain in 2008 and Gingrich now.  The difference this year is that Romney, in the Professor’s opinion, is the candidate with the best organization, recognition, money, the one to be “next in line”, the candidate from the state next door, and he is the most likely to beat Obama.  Many candidates have elected not to campaign in New Hampshire precisely because Romney is here.  Perry, for example, has been focusing on South Carolina and Bachman and Santorum have been campaigning extensively in Iowa.  The rest of the candidates just do not have the money to campaign.  Huntsman’s campaign, by the way, is being financed by his father. 

            Despite warning himself against predictions, Professor Smith guessed that Romney will win the New Hampshire primary.  Only 25% of the likely voters have indicated that they have made up their mind as to who they will vote for.  50% do not decide until primary day.

            Now here is a trivia question:  Who is the only candidate to win a New Hampshire primary without being on the ballot?  LBJ!

            Remember, there is no meeting until January 5^th.  Jeff Marple won the raffle – there was no match.

            Happy New Year!